Bad Teams Make The Same Mistakes
A couple of years ago, the RB value discourse reached an all-time high. Saquon notoriously turned down the Giants’ lower offers, got franchised, and left for a big contract in Philly, which paid off handsomely in multiple ways. His amazing 2024 season, along with Derrick Henry’s Ravens season the same year, gave off a massive “RB’s ARE BACK” wave, and calls that these guys showed that it’s worth paying running backs.
I never liked that narrative because, to me, all 2024 did was show that Running Backs still aren’t that valuable or vital. Saquon didn’t turn the Eagles into contenders; he merely pushed them over the top. Saquon was a luxury signing on an already good team built around what made him special. This was the flawed thinking that got him drafted as a Giant in the first place: The Giants huffed their own farts, thought they were an elite RB away from playoff contention, and instead trapped Saquon on a shitty dysfunctional team with a bunch of holes that never got addressed properly.
Derrick Henry was the same deal. The Titans were entering a rebuild; paying him what he is worth would have been stupid team management. He left for a team built to win with him.
Elite running backs, the ones who can “break a game”, are still only worth paying as a luxury in the modern NFL. It sucks for these guys, but that’s just how the modern game is set up. It remains a risky decision to pay them big cash for the current game. Seattle just won a Super Bowl with Kenneth Walker as the MVP, and instantly let him walk to KC. QBs have been shifting into being mobile threats as well as passers, taking roles away from the running back.
This is why I feel bad for Jeremiyah Love. Before the Rams slammed their head against a brick wall and drafted Ty Simpson at 13, the big mistake of the draft was the Cardinals taking Love at #3. It’s not that Love isn’t talented. He is. But this is the same mistake the Giants made. The same mistake the Falcons made with Bijan, and the same mistake the Raiders made last year with Ashton Jeanty. Bijan is amazing, but he hasn’t been able to drag Atlanta into the playoffs in the weakest division. Jeanty wasted away on the league’s worst team last year. These elite running backs are almost too talented for their own good, getting drafted too high to make an impact, wasting their best years on garbage franchises that really needed to focus elsewhere. This only damages their later payouts when the bill comes due.
Does anyone think Love is going to matter in Arizona? A team with that many holes, an underwhelming new staff, cheapskate ownership, and god knows what else wrong? Love will at least get a top 3 pick rookie deal as consolation.
It’s not too late for some of them. Jaymir Gibbs wasn’t quite top 10 but has become a focal point for Detroit. If they return to playoff contention, he should get paid. Under Stefanski, Bijan has a chance to break out big time just in time for his contract season. The load should ease up on Jeanty now that the Raiders presumably have a QB and a competent modern coach.
I don’t think RBs are escaping the value pit anytime soon unless the game heavily shifts back to relying on them more. It is a position that is trapped in hell. The fact is, if you have a top 10 pick, even an elite talent at RB is a stupid decision unless you are a good team that got in the top 10 through trades or flukes.
When is the last time that at top 10 RB genuinely turned a team around? Like, do we have to go back to ’07 with AP on the Vikings?
Probably. But even that’s not enough to win a SB. Look at Barry Sanders and the Lions, or even Walter Payton with the Bears, two of the finest RBs of all times, both without a SB ring. Their entertainment values are stratospheric, they helped sell a lot of merchandise but like Josh Allen, they couldn’t carry the entire team on their backs to ultimate glory.
Payton won a Super Bowl ring with the ’85 Bears.
And did so while carrying the offense too, accounting for more than 1/3 of total yards from scrimmage on the #7 offense in the league.
It’s easy to forget that Payton for a time had it worse than Sanders. Difference is that the Bears git gud with historic defense while the Lions…be the Lions.
That was a very ‘Bears’ team. Howie Roseman probably has signed posters he sleeps with.
Their D would basically flatten the opponent QB and OL would open massive holes.
Their only nemesis was Dan Marino who face planted vs an inferior NE team.
There is probably a universe out there where everyone feels sorry for the bears never winning a SB
And Marino has 1 ting he really worked for
I still do think that RB is undervalued and that in a properly run offense we see the difference between acceptable and elite level of production. And it makes the QB better: ask Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson if James Cook and Derrick Henry helped in their MVP seasons. The Bills, Ravens, Bears, Eagles and Lions all heavily use their RBs
But if you don’t have QB settled? You better have yours picked out for the next year because you aren’t going anywhere fast.
You’re not wrong, but I think most fans don’t care if their team’s QBs get MVP seasons. They want a Super Bowl win. Personally, IDGAF about MVP. If the RB is just stat-padding for the QB, then they’re not really adding value. Thyre just making the QB look special. It needs to translate to wins. Real tangible wins.
Plus it doesn’t help that for the past decades, players winning MVP and the SB at the same year has gotten more rare than an undercooked steak.
And it was already rare to begin with.
Probably the most damning evidence of this is the fact that if you start listing the greatest running backs that began their careers in the 2000s, you will see arguably the four best RBs during that time are without rings:
LaDainian Tomlinson
Adrian Peterson
Christian McCaffrey
Derrick Henry
That’s the 4 best RBs that started their careers after the year 2000. Between all 4 of them, they have 1 super bowl loss.
Raiders drafted Jeanty and ate a year of his rookie deal to have a premium player that wouldn’t cost them rhe #1 OVR pick the hear later
Teams draft an RB top 10 to sell tickets and jerseys.