The Draw Play

WE ARE ALMOST BACK!

College football returned last week and already gave us delightful chaos with the Michigan game ending. We are so back. Pro Chaos returns this Wednesday, and while I will reserve the normal predictions for then, I wanted to start off with a taste of the new Vibe Check for the 2026 Chaometer, because I love nothing more than graphs and charts based on no actual data.

How are teams feeling entering the season? I’m not in tune with every fanbase, so I’m basing this on my own judgment. If there are factors I’m missing, please let me know. Generally, vibes entering a season tend to be inflated and positive overall because most of us are full of hope that offseason acquisitions and changes will work out. Many of them won’t, but we don’t know which ones yet.

The graph is mostly set up into 4 quadrants, and I tried to plot the team roughly where in each sector they lie, because some are on the verge.

Good team, good vibes – Sunshine and Rainbows
Good team, bad vibes – Existential Dread
Bad team, good vibes – house money
Bad team, bad vibes – maybe just skip football this year

Now let’s run them down team by team.

GIANTS – The Giants are not a good team, but the vibes are good enough that some people are still picking them as upstarts. Outside the Dart tent bullshit poisoning the discourse, the Giants have an exciting new coaching regime that appears to be making competent decisions. OBJ is back and has raised the energy. They cut Hyatt and Neal. Arvell Reese is getting a lot of hype. The team still has problems and is functionally rebuilding so we shouldn’t expect much, but hope has sprung back in the swamps of the Meadowlands.

EAGLES –  No matter how good the Eagles are, it feels like the fanbase is negative about it. Not terribly negative and the team hasn’t taken much of a step back outside losing a disgruntled Brown. But the Hurts drama, Sirianni remaining a tool, and the unknown new OC leave the team wondering if this is going to be a year of Good Eagles or Silly Eagles.

COWBOYS – The Cowboys have officially been irrelevant long enough that the usual pre-season Super Bowl hype just isn’t there anymore. The Cowboys feel stuck in a sort of limbo. Shotty was a better than expected/still not exciting hire. There were no big offseason moves. The team doesn’t inspire; it doesn’t despair. They simply are. It’s a brave new world we live in.

COMMANDERS – Hoo boy it is amazing how fast things change. Dan Quinn was being considered a steal of a hire before 2025, by the end of the season his mismanagement of Daniels had some people already calling for his head. Things look grim right now. The team is old and Daniels lost a lot of respect with his whole number 5 stunt. 2024 looks to have been a fluke year. If they can’t return to playoff competitor this year it might get burned down.

PATRIOTS – Even with how things ended in the Super Bowl and the Vrabel affair drama, it would be impossible for the vibes in New England to be bad right now. The question of how good the team actually is remains but they look set up to be competitive and the division looks weak.

JETS – I have no idea how Jets fans do this every year. My utmost respect for sticking by this mess.

DOLPHINS – Most of the highest-paid players on the Dolphins payroll are not on the team. The Phins are setting themselves up to take their medicine this season and start fresh in 2027. The only reason to tune into a Dolphins game is to see how the tank is going and who is winning the battle for biggest garbage between them and the Jets.

BILLS – I don’t think the vibes have been this bad before in the Josh Allen era. After another tough playoff exit Terry Pegula made an emotional knee-jerk coaching change that’s not likely to change anything except make the defense worse. This team is a Josh Allen injury from rock bottom, and the new stadium that the local taxpayers funded was built with horrible sightlines. The grey uniform sucks too. Things feel bad in Buffalo.

VIKINGS – How good the Vikings are is a bit of a mystery and the vibes are kind of in the same place. Kyler is an upgrade at QB but by how much? Will Harrison Smith’s retirement leave a major impact? Apparently Smith came back and I missed it. Kevin O’Connell’s leash started to feel frayed last year. Logic tells you a competent QB can turn this offense into a weapon again and Flores still commands the defense but this is the Vikings and they’ve never made sense.

PACKERS – After another 7th-seed wildcard playoff exit with poor coaching by LeFleur many Packers fans wanted a big change. They did not get one. They got Jonathan Gannon at DC instead. This is Green Bay and no fanbase is better at huffing their own farts, but the first sign of trouble might start a cascade of frustration. Jordan Love also needs to take another step forward.

LIONS – Dan Campbell was right two years ago when he claimed they might never get this far again after losing the NFCCG. They chose Drew Petzing at OC instead of Mike McDaniel for some reason. Goff remains underrated imo but his limitations as a statue QB remain. Injuries remain a concern due to how hard the team plays. Last year was a big let-down. This is going to be a telling year for the future of the Lions.

BEARS – The vibes were immaculate last season but it was partially due to low expectations and miracles. The Bears are no longer playing with house money and have to prove they aren’t just the latest one-year wonder. Hope is strong, but those doubts nag at the soul.

STEELERS – A coaching change after so long is exciting…but it was to Mike McCarthy? The team still has most of its talent…and many of the same problems. Aaron Rodgers is back, so the team that tried to move on is still in many ways prevented from doing so. Next year will probably be a lot more interesting.

RAVENS – A major coaching change after so long to a highly touted defensive mind. If the offense and Lamar stay healthy/consistent, this team feels ready to steamroll, but that unknown newbie factor still looms.

BROWNS – Holy shit man. I’m not sure a team has entered a season with worse vibes than Cleveland. The coach is a newbie. They lost Garrett. The QB situation was looking to be the worst in the league, and that was before they named Watson the starter. After that decision, the entire Browns fanbase seemed to rebel and I can’t blame them. I feel terrible for Monken, this is his first and likely only shot at coaching and he’s being sacrificed.

BENGALS – As long as Burrow is healthy, the team has hope. Sexy Dexy should help the defense too. How much remains to be seen.

PANTHERS – The Panthers were the top of shit mountain last year, but that is still a reason for hope. Bryce continues to move forward. The team is young. Major questions remain, but I see no reason to stop pounding.

FALCONS – Kevin Stefanski was a good hire; yet he seems to be stuck in QB hell again. Tua is broken. Penix isn’t healthy. It is hard to predict if the defense will regress without Raheem Morris. Anyone with Bijan on their fantasy team is about to have a good time.

BUCS – The Bucs vibes have tanked tremendously. Todd Bowles survived getting canned in spite of all common sense, Mike Evans skipped town, and Baker Mayfield can see the writing on the wall and did not sign an extension so he can be a free agent next year. This season the big question with Tampa is how long it takes everyone to get fired.

SAINTS – The Saints found some sort of identity last year and scrapped out some wins. They probably still suck, but hey, this is a house-money team right now so anything good is great.

TITANS – I don’t think anyone expects the Titans to be good this year, but it is hard to be upset with any of the moves they made in the offseason outside Saleh being weird about seed oils.

JAGS – The Jaguars overperformed last season, but in a way you want to see. Things look good. Can they continue the momentum?

TEXANS – The defense should remain stellar. The question is, and will always be: who is Stroud really? He declined a 50 million paycheck to bet on himself this year, so he better deliver for his own sake.

COLTS – Last year the Colts vibes entering the season were atrocious and they surprised us all…for about 8 games. Then the wheels came off. Jones is returning from another tough injury, Richardson was better than expected in the preseason, and the team doesn’t have high picks thanks to the Sauce trade. The Colts vibes are not as bad this year, but they aren’t exactly good.

RAMS – Donald came back so he could play with Myles Garrett. As long as Puka doesn’t get suspended for whatever stupid shit he does next and Stafford stays upright, this is the team to beat.

49ERS – The 49ers are a good team with a well-run front office. They are also cursed by an elder god to suffer eternally. Hard to feel the vibes when your coach almost gets isekai’d and every player is on a coin flip from death. How do you have a team with multiple shooting victims on it?

SEAHAWKS – The Seahawks feel undervalued considering last season. Nobody seems to expect them to repeat. They didn’t appear to get much worse or better, so I don’t see why we can’t just assume they stay deeply threatening. Seattle is a fanbase that loves to whine about east coast/major market bias though, so I’m sure they are all foaming at the mouth to yell about it the instant the team wins.

CARDINALS – The vibes are rarely good in Arizona, but this is again another team likely setting itself up to just punt a season for rebuilding purposes and they won’t be a team worth watching until 2027. Is anyone out there excited about Lesser Lefleur?

CHIEFS – The Chiefs are also entering a limbo state. Mahomes and Co. have coasted on reputation for a bit now but the weak/bullshit 2024 culminating in the Super Bowl demolition and last year’s drastic underperformance have finally shone a light on the team’s precarious position on the edge of the cliff. Mahomes is a checkdown merchant now, and he’s returning from injury. They have never replaced Tyreek Hill and the offense gets older. Taylor Swift’s album disappointed. Chris Jones gave up every other play last year. I’ve learned my lesson in calling dynasties ending too early, but all signs point to the Chief reign being over. I sure as fuck hope so.

BRONCOS – Incredibly bad luck ended their season last year. The Broncos should be good again unless defensive regression strikes them hard.

CHARGERS – Mike McDaniel joining the offensive staff might be one of the most interesting assistant coaching changes for a team in a long time and if it was for anyone but the deeply cursed franchise that is the Chargers I might get super excited about it.

RAIDERS – I felt positive about this team last year and look how that turned out. It makes me feel like I’m setting myself up for foolishness again by feeling positive about the Raiders. They won’t be good, but they seem to be doing things right. Cousins is a fine stopgap. I personally think Mendoza has the juice and will succeed in this league because he’s the right kind of psycho. Kubiak is a good hire. The Raiders feel set up for success…later. This year will still be mostly poo-gas.