Nothing In The Draft Is Ever Certain
With Eli’s recent struggles and everyone pouring it on the Giants for not taking a QB at #2 I think we need to take a step back from the laughter and remind ourselves that the Giants decision to draft Barkley so high is still far from being a true mistake. It very well could be and has a high probability of being one. But it is still far, far too early to actually give a fair assessment of the pick, because we haven’t seen the long-term effects of said pick. It’ll be roughly 2 – 3 years before we really know what that choice did to the Giants organization. So laugh at the Giants all you wish (they deserve it) but Barkley is still just a theoretical mistake at this point.
For a good example why lets look at these two QBs! In 2015 all the pundits could do was argue who the best choice was. Jameis was so talented but kinda dumb and a hassle off the field. Mariota was a perfect person but played in a gimmick offense and maybe it wouldn’t translate. But you couldn’t go wrong with either choice! The Bucs and Titans looked to have a win-win situation, because both these dudes were destined for stardom. 4 seasons later and both guys are on the verge of being busts.
Jameis has turned out to be as dumb as everyone feared he was. He’s a giant immature baby who has had the world handed to him due to his talent, and he’s finally hit a wall where he can’t coast anymore. He still has all the talent but he can’t stay out of trouble and he can’t make good decisions. The Bucs have surrounded him with enough offensive talent to succeed and he hasn’t taken that next step. He got benched yesterday for Fitzpatrick, who promptly came in and put him to shame, almost winning a game the Bucs had no business even being in thanks to Winston’s 4 picks. Once you get benched mid-season for Ryan Fitzpatrick you may as well hang it up, curse or no curse. I expect Jameis to be gone at season’s end and then he’ll float around as a backup for a bit before getting in trouble some more.
Mariota looked more promising out of the gate and is probably more salvageable but appears to be getting spooked. He plays too cautiously and has dealt with coaching turnover. No one seems to want to use him the way Oregon did, but now I’m not sure that would even work. The Titans don’t really have any options besides Mariota so I doubt he goes anywhere, but the Titans might need to invest in a quality backup this offseason just to be sure.
Thing is, and more to my original point, is that it’s not even entirely on these two dudes for their own failures. The Bucs have had coaching turnover and fielded bad teams under Winston. The Titans have had it even worse in some ways. Mariota has no weapons worth a damn. Both teams have failed to build around these guys and 4 years later, they may have wasted their development phases and stuck themselves in a hole worse than bad: the dreaded mediocre. Where you never get high enough picks to grab the transcendent talent and you can’t quite make the jump. Meanwhile look at Goff and Wentz. Goff looked like trash until he got a good coach. Wentz is legit but the Eagles won the SB without him, because the Eagles did something better than just drafting a good QB: they built a good team around him. They also got lucky. Winning a SB always involves more luck than anyone wants to admit.
There’s no guarantee the QBs drafted in this class will be good. A lot of factors go into a QB looking good, many of them not in their control. There’s no guarantee the Giants will find the right guy this coming draft. There’s no guarantee the right guy will even be in the first round: in 2013 the two best QBs came out of round 2 (Garopollo and Carr). They will all say this class won’t look as good as last year, but keep in mind that once draft season rolls around the hype will get stupid and we’ll all be high on a couple of guys. By the time April hits we’ll have at least 2 potential 1st overall QBs people are salivating over. That’s just how it works.
Jameis is what everyone thought Cam Newton would be.
I wouldn’t give up on Jameis just yet, to be fair. Dirk Koetters offense is one of the hardest in the league to run, having watched Matt Ryan struggle with it too. It’s all pro concepts, relies on a medium to long passing game, and requires the QB to make a bunch of pre-snap reads, hard decisions and hard throws. If the O-line is shaky at all the whole thing falls apart and they don’t do enough running the ball to protect the QB. I’m not saying he’s great, but I do think we can’t properly evaluate him in this system.
Having watched that game yesterday, I don’t know how you can possibly blame those picks on the offensive system. I’m not saying it isn’t a complicated offense to run, but they were all really terrible picks and there’s nowhere to place blame except for Jameis for all 4 of them.
He was careless with the ball in college and it has translated to the NFL.
You can’t blame the system when it’s a) his 4th year in the system and b) the only offensive system he’s had. This isn’t a Matt Stafford situation where he’s had a different O-coordinator for like 5 consecutive years. If Jameis hasn’t figured out the system by now he never will.
My point isn’t the learning curve. My point is that the system itself sucks, unless everything is perfect (Matt Ryan 2012) but falls apart when it’s not (Matt Ryan 2013-14). It creates dangerous situations because it doesn’t provide easy dumpoff passes (Ryan needed TE God, Tony Gonzalez to bail him out a lot). Like I said Winston’s not great, but if he played in a better offensive system he might have a chance.
fucking nailed it
Mark Mariota wouldn’t have had that jersey in 2015.
It’s make it easy for Dave to draw alright
A) I’m not sold Saquon was a mistake. As teams start to properly value Joker backs, or runners who are also equal parts slot receiver (Gurley, Hunt, Cook, McCaffery, Kamara), getting late round backs like Kamara will be much more difficult, making a first justifiable. Gurley has a legitimate shot at MVP this year, IMO.
B) Quarterbacks, especially rookies need coordinators to match them. Only a few young QBs transend their O coordinators (Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Deshawn Watson, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers to name a few). And it’s harder with today’s college players because they run so little pro-style in college, picking the right offense becomes more critical.
C) Big Dick Dickson will eventually make a Draw Play comic, I’m sure of it.
I agree with your take on Barkley. I think he was the right pick. A QB with no running game isn’t going to help a team win a championship. Barkley was worth taking there. I’m not sold on Darnold or Rosen. Having seen them play, I think Josh Allen has just a good a chance to succeed as either of them. Don’t draft a QB because you NEED one if there’s not one you view as a true franchise changer. Draft one because you know he’s the RIGHT one for your team. If the Giants had a rookie in there right now, the argument could be made that they may actually be worse this season than what they are. An inexperienced rookie WITH NO RUNNING GAME. Picture how ugly that would be. “With the #1 pick in the 2019 draft, the New York Giants select” would all but be certain.
Plus the offensive line is trash, no matter who QB the team that player would have been screwed except for few exceptions and those are few and far between like that certain horse faced QB who used to play in Denver. Plus I wouldn’t be surprised if Eli plays for one more year so he can mentor whoever the Giants might take as the QB in next draft but nothing is guaranteed at this point. Also sometimes I actually hoped the QBs from this year’s draft ends up as busts just to shut some people up, seriously.
For the main post speaking of Wentz, I wonder what would happen to the guy if the Eagles hadn’t saved him from playing for the Browns.
Nothing wrong with not taking a QB, but you have to take positional value into account. With guys like Chubb, Nelson and Ward, there were just better options. Elite pass rushers, in particular, are nearly impossible to find, outside the first round. Great RBs are found, outside the first, all the time. Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, even udfa Phillip Lindsay.
this. if your o-line is trash, and that’s the reason you’re not comforable taking a QB; THEN FIX YOUR DAMN O-LINE. you can’t center your offense around an RB, even a great one. the numbers on this are so clear, i can’t believe people are defending the Giants pick still.
Yea, the numbers show that pure runners don’t as as much value as other positions. But Kamara, Gurley type backs add way more value to their offenses than can be calculated. Teams can’t play the defenses they want because of those guys. A safety or the best linebacker gets taken out of the play even when they don’t get the ball. There are no numbers for how valuable that is yet, but I wager it means a ton.
Saquan has the talent to be that and maybe better (assuming the Giants use him that way). Same reason the pats drafted Michel in the first, except Michel is nowhere the same talent level.
I wouldn’t call Mariota a bust, he’s certainly good enough and he’s proven that. He was pretty good in 2016 with uh someone playing wide reciever. 2017 was lower but they still made the playoffs beat the Chiefs and were about 20 combined points from being 13-3. All he has this year is Corey Davis and while Mike Vrabel helps, he has nothing but is still making those plays. They are 4 points away from being 5-2. I think a downgrade this year was expected after a playoff berth due to a new coach but their defense is much better. I think they can be good in the coming years if they fix their O line and get another target for him.
If he was picked in say Round 3, he would be what people expected. When you go at the top of the draft, people expect you to lead the franchise to the top. Mahomes is a great example of that. He’s got great talent (mostly) around him. Yesterday, he made Sammy Watkins look pretty good. SAMMY WATKINS!!!!! Mahomes is a better QB than Mariota. It’s not close. It’s not coaching. You can see the talent difference on display on the field. And I’m a Titans fan. I like him. I want him to breakout. But people have been waiting on that for the last 3 seasons and it hasn’t happened. Bust? Maybe not. But certainly not what you want from a #2 pick.
Yes, it’s coaching. Give Reid to Mariota and Mularkey to Mahomes and you’d see the situations swapped.
I’m normally the first to argue that the coaching staff makes a huge difference. But the guy looks horrible this year. You could blame it on coaching. But a great QB would find a way to look at least fairly good in spite of coaching and talent around him. I like Mariota. I’m just not seeing him becoming the franchise QB the Titans need him to be.
Mariota has never really had weapons like Watkins. He’s had Davis and…Delanie Walker. Mahomes, while playing well benefits from having so many weapons around him whereas Mariota is being held back by the ones he doesn’t have.
Mariota was weighed down for years
He’s like if Trubisky kept playing under John Fox and Dowell Loggains, he would never become what he can be and now Trubisky this year is growing faster and being much better. The Bears pulled the gun fired John Fox and built a team around him and kept their good defense and it shows this year and next year they will be really good. The Titans finally pulled their gun and got a good OC(I think). I think we can see next years offseason of the Titans decide to build around him then Mariota can become 2016 Mariota and the Titans will become a perennial 10 win playoff team.
Hue finally got fired lol
About damn time. Shame Jimmy couldn’t decide between him and Haley and just fired them both though.
That’s the NFL these days — it’s like 3-36-1 isn’t even good enough anymore….
I’d say Winston is a bust. He has no excuses. He has a deadly WR combo in D
Jax and Evans with two good TE in Brate and Howard with a decent O line and he still can’t preform. Mariota I would say is a product of an underperforming team. The Titans should have a dominate run game with Henry and their o line. Instead they can’t get the run game going and are relying on Mariota and a weak reciever core to win games when the o line, again, is underperforming. We have seen flashes from Mariota last year so unless he got Space Jammed and had all his talent sucked into a football, he can play at a high enough level to be the franchise guy.
Everyone member week 2? I member.
What do you mean when you say the Eagles got lucky? Sure it takes some luck to win the SB, but I don’t think that is different from any other game in the season or post season.
they got lucky that foles played the best he ever had when they needed it most.
Perhaps it was just a good gameplan that was well executed.
Dave, Carr and Garapollo were 2014.
2013 was the draft where EJ Manuel was the only QB drafted in the first round and Mike Glennon ended up as the best of that bunch.