A couple of years ago, the RB value discourse reached an all-time high. Saquon notoriously turned down the Giants’ lower offers, got franchised, and left for a big contract in Philly, which paid off handsomely in multiple ways. His amazing 2024 season, along with Derrick Henry’s Ravens season the same year, gave off a massive “RB’s ARE BACK” wave, and calls that these guys showed that it’s worth paying running backs.
I never liked that narrative because, to me, all 2024 did was show that Running Backs still aren’t that valuable or vital. Saquon didn’t turn the Eagles into contenders; he merely pushed them over the top. Saquon was a luxury signing on an already good team built around what made him special. This was the flawed thinking that got him drafted as a Giant in the first place: The Giants huffed their own farts, thought they were an elite RB away from playoff contention, and instead trapped Saquon on a shitty dysfunctional team with a bunch of holes that never got addressed properly.
Derrick Henry was the same deal. The Titans were entering a rebuild; paying him what he is worth would have been stupid team management. He left for a team built to win with him.
Elite running backs, the ones who can “break a game”, are still only worth paying as a luxury in the modern NFL. It sucks for these guys, but that’s just how the modern game is set up. It remains a risky decision to pay them big cash for the current game. Seattle just won a Super Bowl with Kenneth Walker as the MVP, and instantly let him walk to KC. QBs have been shifting into being mobile threats as well as passers, taking roles away from the running back.
This is why I feel bad for Jeremiyah Love. Before the Rams slammed their head against a brick wall and drafted Ty Simpson at 13, the big mistake of the draft was the Cardinals taking Love at #3. It’s not that Love isn’t talented. He is. But this is the same mistake the Giants made. The same mistake the Falcons made with Bijan, and the same mistake the Raiders made last year with Ashton Jeanty. Bijan is amazing, but he hasn’t been able to drag Atlanta into the playoffs in the weakest division. Jeanty wasted away on the league’s worst team last year. These elite running backs are almost too talented for their own good, getting drafted too high to make an impact, wasting their best years on garbage franchises that really needed to focus elsewhere. This only damages their later payouts when the bill comes due.
Does anyone think Love is going to matter in Arizona? A team with that many holes, an underwhelming new staff, cheapskate ownership, and god knows what else wrong? Love will at least get a top 3 pick rookie deal as consolation.
It’s not too late for some of them. Jaymir Gibbs wasn’t quite top 10 but has become a focal point for Detroit. If they return to playoff contention, he should get paid. Under Stefanski, Bijan has a chance to break out big time just in time for his contract season. The load should ease up on Jeanty now that the Raiders presumably have a QB and a competent modern coach.
I don’t think RBs are escaping the value pit anytime soon unless the game heavily shifts back to relying on them more. It is a position that is trapped in hell. The fact is, if you have a top 10 pick, even an elite talent at RB is a stupid decision unless you are a good team that got in the top 10 through trades or flukes.
