The Draw Play

Every time I feel like I’m running out of ways to use this joke template I get reminded of another one.

A trend that I was genuinely unaware of reared its ugly head on Sunday Night. The Ravens, under John Harbaugh, have given up 17 4th quarter double-digit leads. That’s pretty bad! Of course…when you hear the number 17 that seems pretty bad. That’s a full season worth of double-digit leads.

If you think about it, the Super Bowl against the 49ers was almost one of them. They managed to win that one because the 49ers forgot how to run the ball when it mattered. But this is 17 games when the Ravens had what most teams would call a winning scenario, and blew it. Bad! That’s bad. You don’t want to be that team.

Upon reflection, I’m not sure it’s a huge deal. It’s not good, you don’t want to lose games with a 4th quarter double-digit lead. But I think this might be one of those stats that requires context for perspective. John Harbaugh has been the coach of the Ravens since 2008. He’s one of the longest-tenured coaches in the league; at this point, I think only Tomlin is longer employed. When you coach that long, you start to put up volume stats, both good and bad. Of course a guy who has coached for almost 20 years for the same team has a higher total of a particular type of loss, that’s not actually that weird? It’s kind of like how the all-time interceptions list features a ton of hall of fame long career quarterbacks on it because they played for ages and threw a fair share of bad balls.

The more troubling part of the trend is that about half of those 17 losses have come since 2020. 3 of them in 2022 alone. The Ravens have only managed not to have one of these games in the 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2019 seasons. So most of the Lamar era has made this problem worse. So what gives? Why does this keep happening? Why did Ravens fans almost instantly lose heart as soon as Harbaugh punted, as if they knew what was coming? I think Harbaugh is just an old-school coach who goes conservative with leads. Baltimore has never been one of the more aggressive 4th down teams with Lamar despite offense being what they are good at.

Harbaugh punted on 4th and 3 against the Bills when a 1st down would have sealed the win. The funny part is, I thought that punt was an okay call and people are just mad in hindsight? 3 yards isn’t a gimme even with Buffalo’s defense playing poorly, and missing it puts the Bills already in field goal range when they just need a field goal to win. If you are scared of your defense playing poorly and you aren’t sure of your chances to get that 1st, punting to at least force the Bills to move the ball 40 yards to get into range is…fine? It might not be the analytically best call, but I’d hardly call it a bad call. The Ravens gave up a huge Josh Allen pass anyway to lose it but they would have been roasted to hell if they went for it on 4th and failed too. This was a situation where all the Ravens had to do was execute properly on whatever decision they made, and they didn’t. I don’t know if that’s necessarily on Harbaugh. Not like Harbaugh told Henry to fumble it earlier.

We live in an era where going for it on 4th is the new hotness and Harbaugh doesn’t do it. I think the bigger problem is the Ravens reluctance to step on the throat of their opponents after they earn a big lead. That’s a Harbaugh problem. But it might just be part of the Harbaugh brand, a quirk you have to live with and hope he eventually figures out. Hey, Andy Reid eventually figured out how to manage a clock, and now he’s one of the greatest coaches of all time.

There is a poster on the Something Awful football forum (if you are a goon you know EXACTLY who I am referring to here) who for the past 15 years has blamed Harbaugh for basically every problem and wants him gone. He’s not the only Ravens fan I see with that attitude. It shows a lack of perspective. When you watch a coach for a long time, you take for granted all the good stability they bring and focus on the nitpick nagging issues, like how Tomlin teams always play down to opponents. John Harbaugh has been a stabilizing force of coaching excellence for a long time, but he has his flaws. You don’t realize how much good a guy like Harbaugh does until he’s gone and your team is a complete mess. I thought Tom Coughlin had issues and needed to go. In retrospect, he was still a much better coach in his last painful years than anything the Giants have replaced him with. I would kill for a Harbaugh. I would adore a guy who makes good hires, generally makes good decisions, knows how to develop talent, doesn’t lose the locker room, has a good culture, and brings the entire skill floor of the team up to solid foundational levels.

We tend to judge coaches purely on how they perform during gameday. Do they make good playcalls. Are they bad at managing a clock. Are they aggressive or conservative. But so much of being a coach is more than gameday. It’s keeping team cohesion when things go badly. It’s making guys want to play for you. It’s the work during the week you don’t see. Winning a Super Bowl is hard, and you can’t judge it by the dynasty guys who make it look easy. You need a coach who can get you to the playoffs consistently. Harbaugh is that. Tomlin is that. McVay is that. McDermott is that. Shanahan is that. Sirianni is that. Campbell looks to be that. Whatever flaws these guys have, they run their teams well and make it work, and downslides never last long. Those flaws are deeply frustrating after a time, but in most cases they are still so worth it.

Anyway it’s funny that Harbaugh keeps doing this but I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Just yell at him enough when he fucks up and he might listen.