Justice For Matt Patricia?
Last year, after McDaniels left to go fuck up Las Vegas, Bill Belichick made what the vast majority of people would consider a dumb choice. He hired back former mediocre defensive coordinator and failure head coach Matt Patricia, to be his offensive coordinator. I don’t know anyone who thought this was a good move. The best any hopeless optimist could say was “well, it might work out” with the same kind of tone you have when you get a multiple-choice question on a test and have no idea which answer it is so you blindingly fill in the C bubble.
It did not work. The offense was a mess, about as bad if not worse than expected. Patricia was let go at the season’s end and is now languishing deep in an assistant position on the Eagles somewhere. Bill went and poached another former protege for the replacement gig, Bill O’Brien. Going into this season, a large number of questions still hung over the Patriots, but O’Brien had experience calling offenses and I think most people, myself included, at least assumed that the Patriots offense would function more than 2022. How much? Maybe not a lot, but anything had to be better than the Patricia mess.
Halfway through 2023 and maybe Matt Patricia was never the problem. At least, not the main problem.
The Patriots offense is pathetic. Down in the muck with the other worst offenses of the league. Unlike the Giants, Bears, Cardinals, Colts, or Jets, they can’t blame it on injuries to their starter. Unlike the Panthers, they can’t blame it on a Rookie surrounded by a lack of talent. The Patriots aren’t loaded by any stretch but they arguably have more than Carolina does and they aren’t starting a toddler at QB. Every team can also claim a shitty o-line. The Patriots are just a total disgrace, and it culminated this week in Germany when Mac Jones threw one of the worst picks you’ll see all year and then got benched for the final drive for Bailey Zappe, who then threw one of the other worst picks you’ll see all year off a fake spike.
So what the fuck happened? The Patriots reached the Wildcard round with Mac two seasons ago (and got nuked by Buffalo, yes, but they made it). Last year was a setback but how did things get this bad? I think the problem is sadly Bill himself. Brady leaving gave Bill a chance to prove who he was without the GOAT and so far that divorce has significantly favored Tommy, who married another supermodel within a year while Bill is left living in a shitty apartment, growing out a goatee, realizing no woman wants him anymore and so he writes screeds about how women are all soul-sucking bitches on Facebook posts everyone mutes.
I mentioned this in a previous comic this year but the Patriots haven’t made any good draft picks in what feels like ages. The Patriot way of shipping off expensive talent, replacing it with mid-level veterans to plug in, and trading down in the draft to select random dudes too high has caught up with them because Tom isn’t there to make everybody look good anymore. The offense makes mistakes now, like a real team. The lack of talent isn’t masked. Billy hasn’t been running the team well at all. He has far too much power to relinquish anything and nobody can tell him no. He’s got his own failson on the staff, nepotism at its finest. The Patriots have finally hit the wall where it might simply be best for everyone to part ways.
There are a lot of rumblings about whether Bill’s job is in jeopardy. That maybe Kraft will finish his afternoon happy ending and let Bill “retire”. I don’t know if I buy into that idea…yet. If the Patriots don’t improve at all (and if they lose to the even more pathetic Giants in two weeks) that might change. Does Bill want to be around for the next attempt at a rebuild? Does Kraft trust him to make smart decisions after pretty much every choice in the past several years has gone poorly? I think we can probably stick the fork in the Mac Jones era. He’ll start for most of the rest of the year but only because the Pats don’t have any better options. Mac sucks. He was average his rookie year and has only slid since. He always seemed like a high floor low-celing kinda guy, but it turns out his floor was actually pretty low.
If he does get pushed out, he’ll pop back up immediately somewhere like Andy Reid did. He’s too close to the all-time wins record to actually hang it up. You can bet your ass he wants that. So where does he potentially go?
–Chargers. Brandon Staley is a moldy yogurt you left in the back of the fridge for a month and unless Dean Spanos is truly the dumbest man on earth, Staley is gone by season’s end. The Chargers need defensive help but pretty much have the offensive pieces in place. LA is warm and cozy compared to Boston. Honestly seems like a great bet.
–Commies. Belichick grew up in Annapolis while his dad coached at Navy so he’s got roots in the region. The Commies are likely to be in need of a coach after Josh Harris decides to jettison all the Snyder slime to implement his new vision, and he’d be willing to spend. The Commies are in a strange place though. They have some offensive weaponry, but QB is uncertain at this stage. They just sold off two of their better defenders. Probably the other good bet as I can see Harris wanting to start his era off with a splash. It’s probably Billy or they promote Bieniemy, which has been speculation since Bieniemy moved.
–Buffalo? A comedy option, but the Bills are in panic mode and just fired Ken Dorsey at OC after this season continues to spiral. That’s usually a foreboding sign that the HC is in trouble. Buffalo has the pieces but just won’t perform up to snuff and needs discipline, which has always been one of Belichick’s strengths. A dark horse candidate, as I don’t see McDermott fired this year unless it gets beyond ugly.
–Raiders. I just love the very improbable idea of Mark Davis going “Well a Belichick disciple didn’t work, maybe we just have to go to the source”
–Falcons – If you put 5 toilets in your bathroom that would still be less of a waste of space than Arthur Smith. The Falcons don’t have a QB but they do have a lot of wasted skill position talent that Bill has gotten good use of before. Bill would actually use Bijan. I don’t see it happening though, Falcons feel due for a hot young McVay acolyte type.
–Panthers – There’s a chance Reich is one and done and he probably should be, but I doubt Billy wants any part of that mess at this stage of his career.
–Giants – In the off chance Daboll gets let go (I think he’s safe till next year when his seat will be on fire) Belichick coming back to NY as a Mara legacy hire would not be out of the question in the slightest. In fact, if the Giants job is open and Belichick is available, I can see Mara making a massive push to get him, and a large contingent of old Giants fans would love this idea. I would not, to be clear. I think Bill’s best days are behind him and his career is just going to fade out into a whimper.
To end this on a complete tangent everyone should watch Fall of the House of Usher on Netflix. Mike Flanagan does it again. Not his best, but the man does not miss.
Friendly reminder that Matt Patricia was accused of rape but the victim was too scared to testify
Thank you for the tag reminder that Sexy Rexy was first with “The Cask of Amontillado” Man I have been on this site a long time. Also, I think Bill’s days are done but I think Kraft lets him ride out his days until he has the wins record or chooses to retire.
The issue with the Pats right now is that they never actually “rebuilt” post-Brady and the faulty foundation that they were built on finally gave out and caused the whole building to implode.
They never picked in the top 10 after Brady left. Just consistently struggled to mediocre finishes and whiffed on the mid-to-late round selections. This situation was years in the making and the only person who could have saved this was Tom Brady. When Brady left, that was the perfect opportunity for the Patriots to blow it up and do a full, hard reset. The team was already trending down even before Brady left (I’d say as far back as 2017 but somehow both of those squads won the AFC) and it was obvious going into 2020 that they weren’t going to make it back up with the roster they had. That was the time to eat a very bad season, get a high draft pick, and start building towards to the future. Instead, they struggled to a mediocre 7-9 record with a washed up Cam Newton and fell back to Pick 15 where they settled for Mac Jones.
I honestly still believe that Mac could have worked out in NE, but there was a big catch: You have to build around that guy. You can’t treat him like Tom Brady and throw a bunch of bargain bin options on the field and expect him to cook a 5 star meal. You have to surround him with elite skill guys, an elite rushing attack, and an elite OL. This is doable, as San Francisco has proven with Brock Purdy/Jimmy Garoppolo, but it’s very, very difficult and considering Bill’s overall mediocre track record in getting offensive talent through the draft, it’s no surprise that New England largely failed to surround Mac Jones with much of anything. Pair that with terrible coaching hires and now you’re stuck with a broken QB trying to run a bad offense with mediocre talent.
I retired a lot younger than Belichick is.
I just didn’t have the stamina to concentrate on complex things for long periods of time the way I once could.
It also became harder over the years to absorb new technology, a process that was once fun and effortless became a chore.
Belichick has always been a one man show, involved in every detail, and that may not be sustainable in his 70s.
Bill Belichick is a dinosaur. 95% of players in the league today are gen Z and they don’t respond the same way as players he’s coached previously in his career. It’s also extremely difficult to be both GM and head coach. Andy Reid couldn’t do it in Philadelphia. Bill just doesn’t have the roster building touch he once had. He was never good at drafting, but he used to be great at filling out the margins.
If Belichick is to be successful somewhere else (Chargers is an intriguing thought) he’s going to need to accept a reduced amount of control and he’s going to NEED a crackerjack coaching staff to cover his weaknesses. If he can focus defense and molding special teamers into role players I think he can still be a decent head coach somewhere.
Oh, don’t for a moment think that Matty Patty is blameless in all of this. His time as OC was an unmitigated disaster in no small part because it caused a rupture between Mac and the coaching staff that’s continued to fester into this season. His play design and playcalling was a disaster. He also put Kendrick Bourne, the best receiver the team had, in his doghouse for reasons that remain unexplained. Everything he did crushed Mac’s confidence at a crucial moment in his development.
But the problem runs deeper than that. Everything Belichick has done since 2020 has snowballed into what we see today.
Highlights include:
-getting rid of Mac’s favorite WR and replacing him with Zombie JuJu
-not addressing the OT position in any of the last 3 drafts despite it being an obvious, glaring need
-low-balling DeAndre Hopkins
-passing on Brandon Aiyuk in 2020 and instead trading down to take a safety who’s good but will almost certainly leave for greener pastures after this year, and two tight ends who combined for 7 NFL catches.
At least Kyle Shanahan had the courtesy to trade Trey Lance when he realized staying in SF wasn’t going to be a viable path forward for him
Belichick treated Mac like the son he wishes he never had.
I don’t like Mac and never really was particularly bullish on him, but even I can’t help but feel sorry for the kid at this point.
Everything since 2020 has been disastrous but I think the biggest failure lies in Belichick’s 2022 offseason. Dave talked about Murphy’s Law games, but I think this qualifies as a Murphy’s Law Offseason:
– Terrible coaching decisions
Losing Josh McDaniels was tough as I’d argue he did help Mac a ton with his early development. He kept things safe and often protected Mac with his playcalling. It was crucial that New England provide Mac Jones with quality coaching so that he could continue his development and not plateau or regress. Instead, Belichick opted to go with two nepotism hires and put the development of a young, franchise QB in the hands of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Unsurprisingly, that experiment completely failed and most likely destroyed Mac’s confidence in the process.
– Terrible offseason moves
While the 2022 offseason was relatively quiet, there was one move in particular that sets up the next part of this, namely trading away Shaq Mason for a 5th round draft pick. One of the few strengths of the Patriots was the OL, and this was a team that already had a hole at the tackle position. They suddenly created another hole along that unit just to cheap out a bit which leads directly into their draft…
– Terrible Draft
It’s not often that you can declare an entire class to be terrible after 1.5 years, but I would argue that the 2022 Draft Class is one of the worst that Belichick has ever put together. They had nine picks in that draft, and they went 1/9. The only player from that class who is at all salvageable is Marcus Jones, and he’s a special teamer and utility guy. So they didn’t address the tackle position at all, ended up reaching on mediocre guard who was projected to go in round 3, whiffed on the lone receiver they took, and selected a number of other players who aren’t even on the team anymore. Of the 9 players taken from that class, only 4 are still with the Patriots, and only 1 looks like a player that will be worthy of a second contract (did I mention that that single player is also out for the season with an injury? No. Well he is.)
All of that led to a mediocre 2022 finish and a brutal 2023 campaign. It remains to be seen how this class will pan out, but outside of Christian Gonzales (who is also out for the year with an injury), that class is also looking extremely rough. That said, 2022 might have been the most important offseason in very long time for the Patriots and they completely dropped the ball at every single level. We’re just the true effects of it take shape now, and I highly doubt that Bill will be able to drag them out this hole.
You know, while reading your commentary, I was oddly reminded of the comic that you did way back when Brady was suspended for DeflateGate. I believe Jimmy was the 2nd String QB at the time and had been playing well and the question came from a reporter if Brady would be benched for the season to let Jimmy play. I may be getting the details wrong, but I know the reporter was mocked for the question, but now it makes me wonder.
Has Belichick always known that Brady was the secret sauce that made his coaching style work? That without him or someone of his raw talent at QB the whole thing falls apart?
There were a lot of debates as to who was it that made the Patriots great for so long, and now I think Belichick always knew the answer, and was smart enough (and maybe humble enough?) to keep quiet till the proof bore out, at which point the good times would be over.
This is pretty much it. They need a true rebuild. And pretty much every team looks bad if you don’t hit at QB. Mac is basicly your “average” result for the draft pick. Not a bust but not a star. (Only way to get multiple hits at QB is be the Packers). Kyle Shanahan is the only coach I’ve seen look good wo a great QB and his team has like a ton of pro bowlers. ESPN has NE as the worst pass block win rate in the league so. Add not having anyone to throw too it’s nor surprising Mac looks bad.
Anyway, this year is a combo of injuries and lack of talent to begin with. The probability had one of the worst talent groups to begin with and none were elite and they are hurt now anyway.
This feels like hindsight and the recency of what are surely Belichick’s twilight years talking. The Pats won half their superbowls *really* early in Tom’s career, when he was supported by a very well-regarded defense. A popular narrative at the time was that he was a “system QB”, although maybe that was more haters hatin’ than really being objective. Still, there was also the 2008 season where the Pats still went 11-5 with Brady down for the year (although they did somehow miss the playoffs). The consensus at the end of the aughts was that, yeah, Tom Brady was very definitively not a system QB (how could you claim that with a straight face after 2007 lol), but Bill was running a tight ship that would have succeeded without him.
Big props for The Cask of Amontillado reference though. That cracked me up.
So Washington and the Patriots have brick walls with prisoners in them, I love this
I think the Pats are tanking for Caleb Williams now. They just can’t say it out loud. Pretty sure Belichick will be there next year, like it or not. Although I have to admit that Belichick looks more and more like the Tom Landry of the 80s and looks outcoached by the new football.