Is Brock Purdy Good?
Short answer: yeah. Honestly I don’t think that’s much in doubt, but it made a snappier comic. The debate around Purdy isn’t so much “Is he good” but “How good exactly”. Is he a mid-level system QB being severely propped up by his surroundings or is he genuinely the driving force behind the 49ers success as of late? In a class case of centrist cop-out, I think the answer lies in the middle. He’s better than his detractors claim, but he is not as good as the Purdy Posse wants to believe he is. Yes I’m gonna keep calling them the Purdy Posse, fuck you.
So let’s immediately write off the fringes of the bell curve in these arguments. Anyone who says Purdy is trash is just a hater. Anyone who was genuinely saying he belongs in the MVP conversation can join the hater in the dumpster and while they fight each other like rabid raccoons over the remains of someone’s Burger King the rest of us civilized people can have an adult conversation.
The system QB argument has always been kind of a chicken-and-egg question. Every QB is, to some level, affected by the system around him. Stick Mahomes on the Panthers and yeah, even he gets worse. Of course Purdy is going to play worse when Deebo, CMC, or Kittle is out. That’s not really proof of anything. He’s probably going to play worse if Brian Schottenheimer was his offensive coordinator instead of one of the best offensive minds in the game. The debate is really around whether Purdy is a bottom-top 10 guy or a mid-teens guy. If you subscribe to the tiers method of ranking dudes, whether or not he’s Tier C or Tier B (Tier S is just Mahomes, for reference).
The case FOR Purdy
This might sound wild to some of ya’ll, especially since I largely come down on the opposite side of the argument, but Purdy right now reminds me of early Brady. EARLY Brady, 2001-2002 Brady. Game manager Brady. The Brady who was not an elite QB but a guy who’s main job was not fucking up so that the defense and run game could win. A job early Brady was an expert in. That’s what stands out to me about Purdy. He’s smart, and he executes the offense exactly as he needs to. Purdy makes generally good decisions and is safe with the ball. He’s not a gunslinger, he’s not trying to win games with his arm, he’s just there to steer the ship through the obstacle course. He’s not going to go for the shortcut to win, he’s not going to drift around corners, he’s going to drive straight and true and be boring as fuck – yet effective. Brady didn’t become the GOAT for a couple more years, at least not till 2004, probably even later, in like 2006-7. Purdy is in a great spot to learn the game and play effectively and he may just evolve into a great player without us really noticing. He’s putting up decent stats this year and until the previous two games was taking good care of the ball. It should also be noted that while his performance against the Vikings was ugly, he was also apparently concussed. So that probably had something to do with it.
I think this is his strength over Garoppolo. Jimmy probably had more arm talent but he was also more mistake prone.
The Case AGAINST Purdy
He really hasn’t been tasked with winning a game until the past two weeks. Making the comeback, putting the team on his back against adversity. He hasn’t actually faced much adversity. Last year’s schedule during the Purdy games was pathetic competition until the Dallas playoff game, where he was…okay. The Philly game doesn’t count at all. This year he’s faced some slightly better competition and he’s been mixed. He did well against both the Steelers and Cowboys defenses, but he struggled against the Browns defense and the Vikings (Again, concussed, so hard to judge). He also struggled for at least the first half against the Giants defense. Watching Purdy in the Giants game, it was startling to see how much felt like Kittle and Deebo and CMC just breaking tackles constantly. Purdy has an extremely easy job when those guys are around you. He’s not making dangerous throws, he’s not wowing anyone with his arm, he’s just putting the ball where it needs to be: in the hands of the star skill players.
The real question sort of comes in with well, how many QBs could you stick on this 49ers team and get the same level of production if not better? How many QBs would you rank over Purdy in a vacuum? The answer is a fair amount, at least from my POV. Let’s do that, for funsies.
QBs I would take over Purdy right now (not in any specific order)
Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Tua
Hurts
Herbert
Dak
Lawrence
Lamar
Cousins
Geno
Goff
Stafford
There’s also Rodgers, who is better than Purdy for sure but is also out for probably the year.
This puts him around #13, which I think is entirely fair. Good, not great. Solid, not spectacular. Not every QB here is perfect, like Geno or Dak, but both have shown more ability to win a game on their arm than Purdy ever has. Part of the problem with evaluating Purdy is simply low sample size. He hasn’t played a full season of games yet.
I think Purdy is in about as good a situation as a QB can be in. If he misses the game this Sunday and Sam Darnold starts and looks just as good, that’s probably a knock against Purdy, because Sam Darnold sucks. But this is a great place to be, because he can just keep learning and improving and honing his craft while in a position to make mistakes because his surrounding team is so ace. I think the 49ers can absolutely win a SB with Purdy as he is right now. I don’t think Hurts is anything special when throwing the ball either, he’s also benefitting from the players and system around him.
But it’s so weird seeing a guy who wins a lot of games and still not be able to tell what sort of player he is. Purdy remains a mystery in many ways. I guess all of this was just to say
He’s Purdy Good I guess.
I started out the season entirely convinced he was any good. The sample size was too small last year. As the season has gone on I started getting more towards “Huh he might actually be really good” then the last two games happened and I think I fall squarely on where you say.
Even with all the talent in the world around you, you have to at least be competent to make it work. It’s not like purdy is out there throwing against motionless practice dummies, even the easiest NFL qb job in the world is still extremely hard. But also, he still clearly isn’t up there with the more elite talents. He’s fine.
‘entirely unconvinced’
Ultimately, he’s winning. And I guess that’s the only thing that should matter to the fan base at the end of the day. But being the winningest does not necessarily make you the best, and it’s this conflation that slightly rubs me the wrong way. You can talk about greatness and winning all you want, but Purdy on the current Panthers probably looks just as bad as Bryce Young. I’m pretty solidly convinced of that.
Its not just about winning, you have to look competent while doing, if it wa just about winning than Jimmy G and Brock Purdy are the same QB.
Trent Dilfer, GOAT
I think most of the issue around the Brock Purdy debate stems from the fact that a lot of the terms that are best used to describe him (“system QB”, “game manager”, etc.) have been badly misused for many, many years now and are almost always thrown around as pejoratives to diminish the accomplishments of specific players that aren’t well liked. So when fans see it applied to their guy, they understandably see red. To them, you’re not saying “I think this guy is okay, but he’s being significantly aided by his situation.” But rather, you’re outright calling him bad, being a hater, and ruthlessly dumping on someone from just doing his job and doing it well.
To me, Brock Purdy is a perfectly good quarterback. He’s not flashy. He’s never going to straight up win you any games by himself. But he’s rarely, if ever, going to screw the team over. He plays within his abilities and does exactly what he’s told, and it works perfectly for the type of scheme that San Francisco is trying to run. Like you said, it’s very much like super early career Brady in that he’s not necessarily the reason the team is winning, but it’s obvious that the team is being greatly helped by his play and his ability to work with the guys around him. I don’t think it’s fair to fault a guy for just doing his job, however I do think that it is very important to highlight the team surrounding that guy and acknowledge that he is in a great, or at least very good, situation.
Pretty much the only problem that I have with the discussion surrounding him is the inconsistency from other fans. He’s better than Jimmy Garoppolo but not by all that much. Yet he receives excessive praise while Jimmy G was treated like a trashcan mimicking an NFL quarterback. If people had the same energy for both guys, I wouldn’t really care much if at all, but they don’t. Like most things sports talk, people love to argue in extremes even when the real answer is clearly somewhere in between.
Niners fan and I agree.
I think while Jimmy was QB, people saw his shortcomings and assumed immediately that if only those were fixed, the 49ers would dominate. And for the first ~10 starts of Purdy’s career, that’s what it looked like was happening: fewer turnovers/sacks, extending plays, and executing the offense were enough to put up 30 points almost every game.
Of course people took that too far and interpreted him as the next Brady, without realizing the gap between Jimmy and Purdy in the 49ers offense isn’t as substantial as they’re imagining.
Maybe he was concussed again but yeesh that second paragraph is not looking good right now lol.
Is there any young QB that’s ever been gifted such a tremendous set of circumstances as Purdy? You could argue maybe Mahomes?
They both had elite head coaches and pass-catching options and Good-to-great OL pieces.
Purdy, however, has ALSO had the benefit of an ELITE defense filled with guys who are top-3 at their position, and many more who are in top-10 consideration. Throw in the fact that the FO has been willing to spend draft capital to acquire insane pieces like HOF McCaffery and Trent Williams. You add all of that into a system that took Jimmy Garopollo one missed throw to a wide-open Emmanuel Sanders away from a Super Bowl win, and you get what we’re seeing. An average quarterback with above-average decision-making taking over the league.
Honestly, if he wasn’t Mr. Irrelevant, there’d probably be more consensus, but the media is stuck between trying to hype him because of the story, and outkicking their coverage on his actual talent. My eye test says he’s decent and perfect for that system (which is ultimately the only thing that functionally should matter), but he has too many other things going well around him for me to truly call him a top-10 guy in a vacuum. Talking strictly about QB production: Justin Herbert has done more with less. Lamar Jackson has done more with less. Hell, even Kirk Cousins has done more with less.
Mahomes absolutely benefitted from situation when he came into the league but he also came right out of the gate doing shit nobody had ever seen before and was an obvious upgrade over Alex Smith, who had the same scenario
Purdy right now is kind of just Alex Smith
Trey Lance? And Jimmy Garoppolo was no spring chicken.
I was gonna make the early years Brady argument. I think that’s where he falls right now. Good QB’s play good with the talent around them mostly. Great QB’s make the talent around them good. Jimmy was okay in that system. Never a world beater, but good enough to win and compete in most games until he got hurt or made a mistake. Trey showed some promise but not enough to beat out the mostly unspectacular Prudy. If it was all the system, Trey would be starting right now. I may be in the minority, but I think Darnold could be a serviceable QB in the Niners offense though I feel like his ceiling is probably closer to be a younger Jimmy G.
I think this game show idea could be used a lot. I mean, people still have questions about Lamar. Hurts has probably the best O-line in football and an offense loaded with weapons. With all the talent the Chargers have, even people have their doubts about Herbert now. Not to mention the preseason hype for Justin Fields. Jordan Love? Daniel Jones (I had to mention him)? That’s just QB’s. That list can go on a long time.
Is Daniel Jones good? The answer is no, show cancelled
I think I could be convinced to put Purdy in the top 10, but right at the very bottom of the top 10. Stroud is doing well in a significantly worse situation so far. so i could also be convinced to let him have the #10 spot over Purdy with a few more games to increase his sample size.
I’m a fan of Purdy but try to be realistic about his ability. I think he has a higher potential ceiling than Dak and possibly Geno. But Geno may have not hit his peak yet either.
Purdy = Dak in my mind. Slightly above the “system QB” level, but not by much.
Is Purdy holding the team back from winning? I’m not sure he has proven to win games when it matters most, but I don’t think he is actively holding the team back from winning.
He’s not holding the team back, but he’s also not really the reason they are excelling and a lot of other QBs would be performing just as well in his place. That’s the whole reason people are debating him.
Niners fan and I love the exercise of ‘who would you swap for Purdy?’ I also mostly agree with your list, and I’d also place him around 10th – 15th. I think his next step for moving up in the ranking is to have more games where he steps up in clutch situations. Sure he can execute the offense and build a lead, but he needs to be able march down the field and get the W.
He could still end up in any QB tier, but my best guess is he ends up in the same overall tier as Matt Ryan or Matt Stafford (albeit with different specific strengths). Not quite “elite”, but good enough to be a franchise QB and give a team a real shot at a SB win.
I don’t think any Niners fan would swap Purdy for a third of the people on the list: definitely not Dak or Geno, and not just because they’re QBs for SF rivals. Probably not Cousins (even after last Monday’s game) or Stafford either.
Darnold has gotten the short straw so many times, I’m still not convinced he sucks.