The Eli Manning Hall of Fame Debate
Alright. It has been a while since Eli retired and the HoF debates have largely settled into background noise again since he’s out of the public consciousness for now. However, I still always wanted to make a big post about this, separate from the retirement post, because I know for a fact it’s a hot topic for discussion and always brings the comments out. People got opinions!
Nobody in the history of football is going to be more hotly debated for the hall than Eli already is. The debate started back after he won his second super bowl and it has only increased in volume since, and the past month after he stepped down might have been the worst it has ever been. I anticipate his first year of eligibility will be even worse, and we’ll still be arguing about it before we hit that point. So I wanted to put my personal piece out there for posterity. This is how I feel, right now, about Eli Manning’s Hall of Fame debate.
I don’t think he’s a hall of famer.
*is immediately dragged kicking and screaming into the streets by Giants fans who proceed to beat me to a bloody pulp*
Let me start off by saying that this doesn’t mean I don’t want him to go to the hall of fame. I absolutely do. I would love to see Eli in the hall of fame. In fact, if/when Eli goes in, I will be a merciless troll to everyone who is mad about it. It will be one of the best days I have in my life and I will make everyone angry about his induction even angrier. The sheer thought of how much of a pest I will be brings me untold joy, even right now. I want Eli Manning in the hall extremely badly.
But I don’t think he quite deserves it.
Eli has several arguments to his name that I think are unignorable, no matter how much the spreadsheet types will try to do that very thing. In fact, part of the reason I want Eli in the hall is just to stick it to these nerds, because these numbers people get get so frothing mad at the mere idea of Eli in the hall of fame that it literally breaks their brains and they don’t even make good arguments. Eli Manning is not comparable to Nick Foles outside one very specific element of their respective careers. Just imagine how hilariously mad people like this will get if Eli goes in. It’ll be a fucking party and I’m the DJ.
The fact is, narrative matters. Legacy matters. Championships matter. The hall of fame is not just numbers. It reaches farther than that. When we read about the history of the NFL, the legacies of players, the stories and myths that the sport cultivates…it’s not about the numbers. Kids don’t go to the hall of fame, walk past the exhibits, and gape in awe at Tom Brady’s passing yard totals. Career passing percentage does not give football it’s mythical power. Legacy does. The myths and legends and legacy of football are built off stories like Eli Manning. To me, this might genuinely be the most important aspect to anything in sports. Athletes are our mythical heroes. TD totals are only really relevant in relation to their play era, but stories like 2007’s run will never age. To write this off, to ignore this, to pretend this doesn’t matter, is fucking moronic. Everyone who dismisses this aspect of the debate deserves to be pantsed and shoved into a locker.
Eli has the legacy part of the debate locked up. He was a mythical figure important to the story of the league in multiple ways. His draft legacy. His super bowl runs. His iron-man streak. His goofy face. His weird personality. His work in the community. It’s all there. If this was all that mattered, he’d be a lock.
But the numbers side of the argument still exists, and it is still important. And frankly it isn’t in Eli’s favor. The parts that are (7th all time in passing yards, 7th all time passing TDs, single season playoff passing yards leader – 2011, 4th quarter passing yards record in 2011, The iron man streak, being relatively high on multiple other career totals lists) are not particularly strong, and Eli will only slip down these lists in the coming years as multiple players still active are right behind him. In 5 years, changes to offensive output will likely outpace him as well, and these numbers will be less glamorous. His only true season leading stat in any category was a negative one: interceptions. 3 times.
But again, the numbers aren’t what is most important here. What I think the ultimate argument against Eli happens to be is also kind of a legacy argument. He was never really the best. Not even for a season.
Eli had good years and bad years, and his final 6 years in a depleting and dysfunctional franchise did him zero favors (and shouldn’t be held against him as much as they are), but he was never really good enough to elevate the team anyway. His best seasons were still not the top, and if you looked back on “Top 5 QB” lists for any given year, Eli will never be among them, outside maybe one single season – 2011. His unquestioned best year, and the big season that pro-Eli HoFers will always quote because it is sadly all they have.
But in 2011, despite passing for almost 5,000 yards, putting up record 4th quarter TD passes, and playing his absolute ass off to drag a mediocre team to glory, his season was still not the top. Matthew Stafford, a player who has never won a playoff game, threw for more passing yards that year. Aaron Rodgers had arguably the best season a QB has ever had and was named MVP. Brees and Brady also threw for more yards than Manning did, and a multitude of players had more TDs on the season. Keep in mind that again, this is the season easily quoted as Eli’s best and if he hadn’t won the super bowl I’m not sure anyone would remember it.
Eli was just never really in the discussion for the best QB of any year he played. He never sniffed an MVP or offensive player of the year trophy. He never got an all-pro nod. He never played consistently well enough, even at his peak. We can’t just ignore this. In the face of this argument I simply see no real rebuttal that doesn’t sound like a reach. For me this is the smoking gun that even as an Eli fan for life, keeps him out. I hate Deion Sanders with a passion, but I think even in his bullshit he has a point that the hall shouldn’t be for players that are so questionable. The fact that there even is such a debate around Eli is honestly kind of the final nail in the coffin.
I think a lot of Giants fans, whether they can admit it or not, secretly agree with me. But it’s not something that will ever be accepted among the fanbase because frankly this is just another battle in the long line of Eli defense that we have been playing his whole career. Eli was a hero to a lot of us, and in some ways I think that Eli reaching the hall will somehow validate our love for the man against the wave of negativity and hate he got from pundits, trolls, and stats nerds. Eli was our boy, and him getting into the hall means we backed the right horse and were right all along, you see. In summation, it is just us rooting for our boy in the face of adversity again, the same way we always have. The reality is it doesn’t really matter if Eli makes it, because he’s not going to stop being our boy if he doesn’t go in. No matter what happens, the man is a Giants legend forever, and we were lucky to have him.
Ehhh, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.
I’m too tired of the whole thing to even care anymore. He’s a fly in the ointment. The system can’t handle him, because he’s simultaneously both worthy and unworthy. The Eli glass is – quite literally – both half full AND half empty. Can they just do the vote now and get all of the bitching out of the way?
He’s not a hall of famer but Peyton will grease the wheels with the commitee when he goes in, then everyone will suddenly receive signed manning memorabilia and get cushy jobs/”NFL Retirement packages” from an anonymous big foreheaded man.
Eli will gloriously be shocked he got in not realizing Peyton has been buying off his whole entire career with gifts,money and some rocket pops. All so he could look better in comparison to his brother.
This pretty much (in that Peyton will help) and it will make a great comic when it (probably) happens.
Do I think Eli should get in on the merits of his career? Probably not.
Do I want him to get in? Definitely not.
Do I think he ends up getting in eventually? Probably.
Despite never really being a top 5 QB, getting voted to few pro-bowls and having no major awards (MVP/OPTY/all-pro) the hall very much cares about narrative and iron man streaks.
I think Eli gets in on 3rd to 5th attempt.
For me it´s like that: If a guy has so many arguments against him, he shouldn´t be in the HoF. If you have think twice or even three times about it: that´s not enough for the HoF.
Eli’s HOF case reminds me a lot of Reggie Jackson’s or Curt Schilling’s. Good, but never great when he didn’t need to be, but a superhero in the playoffs and in high leverage situations. Reggie got in, and Schilling is a fringe candidate who has two chances left and is close.
Eli has two big problems that might ultimately keep him out. First, the Giants didn’t seem to know how to sustain a quality offense around him for a big chunk of his career, and being a QB who is good but not great most of the time means he needed that talent and scheme to make him better. Second, he has nowhere near the charisma or promotional talent that Reggie and Schilling have.
I think ultimately he gets in, because, like you said, his story is pretty damn good, and the voters won’t want to exclude a QB with two rings, or any player with two Super Bowl MVPs.
With Schilling, the issue seems to be his more his big mouth, less his on-field career.
Big mouth? That’s a gentle way of putting it – he’s completely $#!%&? NUTS.
I remember when Roberto Alomar got screwed out of first ballot election because the voters still got pissy over the time when he spat on the ump. Even the ump thought what the voters did is bs.
Schilling has a much stronger case stat-wise than Eli – 60% career win %age, 3 20+win seasons, 3 300+ strikeout seasons, career ERA+ of 127. If he wasn’t such a fuckwit, he’d probably be in already.
I think he gets in, if only because there are a bunch of quarterbacks who are in with objectively worse numbers. Joe Namath is the best example but he is not the only example and Broadway Joe Absolutely deserves to be in.
I think legacy matters more than numbers.
The biggest issue with the numbers argument in any direction is that they are exceptionally relative to their era. Namath’s numbers look bad but back then they were fine. Same with other QBs.
I also think legacy matters more for voters for basically this reason and the reason that numbers can kind of be twisted to fit any side of the argument. Eli being 7th in all time passing TDs is dismissed as a “volume stat” by haters and “Seriously? he’s 7th ALL TIME” by lovers, and tbh neither are explicitly wrong. It comes down to what you personally value.
One thing in Eli’s favor stats wise is that his peers won’t get nominated until after years after he does. He won’t have a HoF comp except Favre and his brother.
Namath’s numbers are fine, true. But isn’t that the point? They’re just FINE, not great. Just like Eli’s.
When he will be eligible, he is likely to miss first ballot. Then suddenly some Ben, Brees, Brady appears. As well Rodgers, Ryan will start their queuing for eligibility. And year by year there will be one or mtwo someone more worthy. And this goes on and on.
IDK Even factoring eras, Namaths lows were way worse than Elis. For example Namaths last season with the Jets he started 8 games, won 1 of them. Had 1090 yards, 4TDs and 16Ints, and a compl perctentage below 50%. Eli never had a year anywhere close to that abysmal. Namath had a great 4-5 season stretch and then had a terrible career with a good season peppered in here and there.
Namath went in for wearing a fur coat and making a ballsy prediction. He helped create the ‘story’ of the NFL, and as we all know by heart at this point, “you can’t tell the story of the NFL without blah blah blahhhhhhhhh.”
Eli will get in on the same criteria. He took down a Juggernaut, twice, executed two of the most memorable plays in Super Bowl history, and has thus become an integral part of the NFL story. The people that want to complain it wasn’t him, it was his defense… then stop calling Brady “The Goat”. If Vinatieri was blind in one eye and drinking heavily, ol’ Goatse would have a 3-6 Super Bowl record. Fair or not, the QBs take the credit and the blame.
There’s a reason Eli won the Walter Payton man of the year and the Bart Starr award – voted on by fellow players in a year where he spent most of his time on the bench. Fans and pundits can hate on him all day, but as a person – which will factor into hall voting – he clearly has the respect of his peers.
^. If you eliminated every Superbowl winning QBs that won with a top 5 defense from the past 20 years, you’d be left with 2006 Payton Manning (32 pnts/game), 2007 Eli (18), 2009 Drew Brees (17), 2011 Eli (22), 2012 Flacco (11), 2014 Brady (8), and 2019 Mehomes (8). Out of Favre, Aikmen, Elway, Young, Montana, Warner, and Bradshaw you’d be left with 1998 Elway (10), 1994 Young (6), and 1988 Montana (8).
Only person on that list twice was Eli and if we moved the cut to top 8 and didn’t count Elway’s 1998 season (TD), we’d be leaving Eli twice, Payton, Brees and Flacco.
I’m totally with you, but living in the heart of New England, I personally know 20+ Patriots fans (some of them inlaws) who have complained *ad nauseum* that the Giants defense “turned it up” during both playoff runs and were the SOLE reason the Giants got the 2 trophies, and the low ranking was a misnomer. “The Giants D-Line deserved the MVP, wah wah wah” and all that hullabaloo.
Which is fine. *IF* we apply that logic consistently to other QBs. Brady touched the ball last in both losses to the Giants and whiffed. He can take the L and tell the Mrs. to stop blaming Shorty McConcussions for failing to catch a ball thrown 15′ over his head. Mr. Brady also needs some blame for losing to Philly, proving he really can’t throw and catch the ball at the same time. Pete Carroll / Pats D handed him 1 win, Shanahan Jr. gift-wrapped him another one, and Vinatieri kicked 3 over to him. I *would* give him credit for Pats v Rams II, but oh wait, he was absolutely putrid in that game. Outside of Edelman their O was a 0.
So people can make the “Eli didn’t win Super Bowls, his defense did” case if we basically agree to do the same thing for Mr. Brady et al.
The QBs take all the credit all the time, or none of the credit none of the time. They can’t take some of the credit none of the time, or all of the credit none of the time. Or was it none of the credit all of the time? It doesn’t matter. ELI-TE 2020!
A far better comparison is Troy Aikman.
To be fair the guy had the balls to wear pantyhose on that commercial as a part of his one of many endorsement deals he had. He deserved to be in the HOF for that alone.
*David
I have no idea why I thought his name was Ben…
Having the New York media behind you makes a world of difference. Eli will likely get in for this reason alone and honestly have no problems with it. Easiest comp is hip hop. Sure Jay Z could’ve been as successful without New York, but it sure made it easier.
I feel like you can keep this in the sports realm and still have your point. Mariano Rivera is unquestionably the best closer of all time, but do you think he even sniffs 90% of the ballot if he wasn’t on the Yankees? Does he even get in first try? Would Jeter be nearly unanimous if he played for the Padres?
Jeter wouldn’t even get in if he was a Padre or Marlin his whole career instead of a Yankee
Actually he probably would if he still bats over .300 and rack up 3k hits.
It took Hoffman 3 years and while Eckersley got in on the first try he only had 83% of the vote. Rivera probably would have been in the same range as Eckersley if he’d played for the Braves or Indians instead of the Yankees.
If RIvera played for the Braves they’d win more than one title during the 1990s run and Indians would win a title with Mo closing for them.
Honestly, I think whether or not Eli is a Hall of Famer depends on how you feel about his logical inverse, Dan Marino.
I feel like Dan Marino only being a stats guy is overblown. He also had a ton of big moments and highlights people who watched in that era remember. And fans of opposing teams absolutely dreaded him with the ball late in the 4th quarter.
Likewise Eli being merely average is probably overblown as well. His stats say he was average, but they don’t account for the dumb offenses he played in. He never really played with a dominant defense. In the end Eli had a ton of big moments and highlights people who watched in that era remember. And fans of opposing teams absolutely dreaded him with the ball late in the 4th quarter
Yeah people still want to crap on Marino because they ate up the old narrative that if his stats were great, he must be selfish and doesn’t care about winning. It’s one of those cliches that gets promoted by some crappy Disney’s made for TV movies you’ll see in the 1990s which doesn’t help.
With that said, once Eli gets inducted into the Hall in around maybe his third ballot, the comic should be interesting if Ben can keep it up. Just imagine…
*David
I have no idea why i thought his name was Ben and it’s right in front of me…
Eli was consistently good for a really long time. Just good, though. Excepting one playoff run, he was never great. Eli Manning is sort of an anti-Terrell Davis in that regard. If Davis can make the Hall on the strength of a brief run of transcendence, then I suppose Eli can get in based on longevity and being dependably above average.
On a related note…anybody else want to see Jamie Moyer make the baseball Hall of Fame?
It’s the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Excellence. Being the QB in two of the most exciting and improbable Super Bowl wins, makes him a lock for the Hall
This is one where I disagree. Eli should definitely get into the Hall. It may not happen on the first ballot, but he has two fantastic arcs each with incredible playoff runs culminating in winning the Lombardi each time. The first of course doesn’t need to be talked about, but is one of the best Superbowl stories ending with Eli winning the Superbowl MVP after a fantatsic post-season performance.
In 2011 he dragged a shitty defense and aging O-line into the playoffs with a ton of 4th quarter comebacks on his shoulders. Then he put on one of the best QB performances in the NFC championship against the 49ers and finally a great performance in the Superbowl. That also had one of the best throws I’ve ever seen with his dime to Manningham right in front of Belicheck. That earned him another Superbowl MVP.
I know that after 2012 the Giants had a lot of disappointing seasons including some bad ones of Eli. You don’t need sustained greatness to be in the Hall of Fame. When it comes at the right time, twice, and bringing home the Lombardi each time, brings him to Canton.
The problem isn’t his lack of greatness at the end of his career to tank his win percentage and such, the problem is he was never really GREAT and in the conversation for MVP or all-pro even during his unquestionably best season. Romo arguably had more years as an arguable top 5 QB than Eli did, and nobody is putting Romo near the hall.
If you take away Brees’s championship, he’s still a lock. Take away Brady’s entire ring collection he’s still a lock. Same with Rodgers and Peyton. If you take away Eli’s two championships…he doesn’t even sniff the hall. That’s what really gets me. I can ignore and dismiss the dumb stat arguments, but not that.
Romo was not statiscally that superior to Eli to make up for his inability to stay on the field or deliver in the clutch.
You covered most everything I was going to say already. He may be 7th in a couple of statistics but the highest he ever ranked in an individual season was 4th. Namath is an interesting comparison, but even he led the league in things besides INT and was an all-pro, things Manning failed to accomplish. As for efficiency, comp% and QB rating, Eli is in the range of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Marc Bulger.
Nearly all of Namath’s accolades came in the talent challenged 9 team AFL.
Eli ending up in the HOF would be such a perfectly Eli thing to happen. Fuck yeah, put him in.
Guy was the (doofy) face of the Giants for nearly two decades, wherein he had a hand in two of the most memorable Super Bowls of all time. Hell, not just the wins, the most iconic moments of them.
If you change only two plays in Eli’s career, we aren’t having this conversation. How many other HoF’ers can you say that about?
And one of those plays only came about because a defensive player dropped one of the easiest interceptions ever.
He’s got longevity going for him, but don’t think his flame burned bright enough to be in the Hall of Fame. Maybe the Hall of Very Good.
If you change 6 plays, Brady is ringless. I guess he doesn’t belong in, either. 😉
Maybe one of those 6 plays would be insane, crazy, one-in-a-million type plays like the Helmet Catch – the Edelman catch against Atlanta.
Brady gets in on the rest of his body of work, even without the rings – 3 MVPs (Manning 0), 14 Pro Bowls (Manning 4), 14 seasons in the top ten in interception ratio (Manning never), 30 Player of the Week (Manning 4), there’s virtually no stat that Manning exceeds Brady in.
Don’t take my word for it though, Pro Football Reference attempted to make a stat to measure a qb’s HoF chances: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm. Eli is not even close to Brady. Eli is a borderline candidate, and if you take away the rings he would have no chance.
I’m not trying to compare the two, so much as point out the absolute uselessness in the hypothetical “If you change [x]…” argument. Because you can do that to *any* player, you just need to change the angle of the slice.
But let’s indulge. We’ll take those two plays away and say the Pats win both times. The Giants would have made more sweeping changes earlier and Eli probably has a better team behind him between 2012 & 2015. Maybe he’s so pissed off from losing to Brady twice that he wins 4 mvps in a row. This is the problem with hypotheticals. It’s living in a non-reality where ANYTHING becomes plausible. So my claim is if you take away those 2 plays, Eli woulda won the next 6 Super Bowls in a row. Prove me wrong. =P
Actually, if you read the rational for the HOF on the PFR site it actually says he is a good candidate to eventually get in. Also, it is not just two plays, there is all this:
2 SB MVPs
15 Tds to 2 INTs
The Post Season records for: Yards, Completions, and GWDs
Led a SB 42 record opening 10 min drive
Only QB to complete multiple Conference Championship games w/o a turnover
A SB 46 record 9 straight completions to start the came.
Oh, and that “easy” interception you referred to – Samuel had to leap up in the air and if he caught it, he would have stepped out of bounds.
I remember a guy online who wrote that Eli’s HOF case will be increasingly stronger every year he’s retired and I agree. As we see more talented QBs succumb to injuries and blow big moments, Eli’s career will look all the better. Availability is the best ability and performing when you need to is arguably the most important trait of an athlete. I’m not saying these things should make him a lock or anything but it’s a part of the legacy aspect to me and should be considered
Man I completely disagree with this one. His best chance to get in is going to be in year 1 or 2, because a lot of great players will eclipse his totals and retire soon and every year is going to feature a better QB choice for the hall than Eli. If Eli doesn’t get in quick, he’s going to get shoved aside and ignored for the likes of Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers, & maybe Matt Ryan all coming down the chute after him
I really don’t think he’s as much of a shoe-in as so many think. There are too many negative factors that will give voters just enough pause.
Yeah but outside of 4 of those guys (excluding Ryan) there aren’t many other surefire candidates who are close to retiring. Even Rodgers can probably play till 40 but only time will tell. And as for the other candidates who are close to retiring, I can think of Fitzgerald, Gore, Vinatieri, Witten, Suggs, Peterson, and probably a few more I missed but, same with Rodgers, we can’t tell for sure how much longer these guys will hang around. And even then, I personally believe Eli has a stronger case than some of these guys (Suggs for example). It’ll honestly come down to how much the voters value legacy and if playing in the New York market helps him, which I think will be enough for him to get in eventually
Random note, but I liked Armstrong’s “face.”
Your all wrong if Joe Namath is in. And Troy Aikman the worst analyst ever is in. Troy rode the coat tails of the best Oline and two of the best players ever What did Joe do? Claim he was gonna win a game Come on? If those two are in, Eli is a shoe in.
If Joe Namath who did one thing ever. And that was predict a game. And Troy Aikman the worst analyst in football ,who rode the coat tails of one of the best O lines and 2 of the best players in history. If those two guys are in then Eli is a shoe in. If Eli had the team that Shakey Aikey had he might have won 5 rings. Debate that people.
Eli’s a sure thing for the Hall. Not a first ballot, by any means– but name another multi-Super Bowl winning QB who *isn’t* there, let alone one in the all-time top-10 for multiple categories. Him never being “The best” is what will stop first ballot, maybe 2nd and 3rd, but he’ll make it in before it’s Senior Eli time. Having played in NYC will ensure it.
I KNOW I will get heat for this one but….to me, Eli feels like a TO style player in the sense that he was good, but also had some bad moments. TO’s came because of his attitude. Eli didn’t have the team around him that some of his peers did ***at times***. When he was good, he was real good. HOF good? I don’t know. But I would question the same thing about TO.
Would anyone say the AB is a HOFer right now? I mean, as a receiver, AB is, at the very least, just as good as TO was (team around him certainly helps). TO was a really, REALLY, good WR. But I think the argument for Eli is comparable to TO. Should he go in? Maybe not. But Eli Manning helped spared us from a New England Patriots undefeated season. That stat should be taken into account, right? (for anyone not getting it, that’s a joke..sorta)
AB’s a weird case because he was absolutely a Hall caliber player but he tanked his career too early and is a complete moron of the highest order and it might have legit taken him out of the running. Legacy matters and unlike TO he doesn’t have quite the same numbers to overcome his attitude.
I feel like he’ll get in eventually. Not on his first ballot, but eventually.
Kind of like the inverse of Rivers. Rivers has better looking numbers, but Manning’s story is much better.
40 comments in and I’m kind of surprised no one has mentioned the Hall of Pretty Good. Eli definitely makes the cut for that one, but I don’t feel he should get into the HoF. Personally, I think a pretty big chunk of what may hold him back was his getting benched, ruining his chance to put up a truly massive iron man run and maybe even challenger Bert Farve. I think that one stat could have done it.
The Geno benching will forever sting his legacy and that pisses me off so much
Some HOF QBs had it worse, him getting benched is a weak reason to not put him in the hall.
You do realize that even Joe Montana was benched.
If you want to be fair to Eli you should Elui compare him to QBs in the HOF. His numbers are comparable or better than many QBs. Jim Kelly, Dan Fouts and others. His accomplishments shoildn’t be ignored.
It’s an era thing. Eli’s stats are impressive by 80’s standards for sure, but not current ones. That has to be taken into account. It’s relative to his peers in his era, not past champions. Fouts, Elway, Kelly, they were the Peytons, Bradys and Brees of their time
I’m still bummed Jim Marshall isn’t in. 127 sacks, NFL record for recovered sacks, 282 consecutive starts at Defensive End (20 seasons), key part of one of the legendary defensive lines people call back to when talking about defense.
The NFL Hall of Fame can be really finicky.
The main argument against Eli is that he was never among the greatest statistical QBs of his era. The critics need to show me where in the HOF guidelines that it states this. Legacy, longevity, character are all important qualities. If we are talking about the best of the best (Top 3-5 of their era) and not legacy then none of these QBs would not be in Canton: Layne, Blanda, Namath, Stabler, Dawson. Bradshaw, Fouts, Moon, Kellt, and Aikman. If his numbers were trash and he had a short career with those SB runs, then he would not be a HOFer – or if he was actually “carried” to those SBs by his defense. Neither of those things were the case period.
I insist that if we admit him to the HoF that his actual first name be included (If you don’t know look it up).